1. Kelly Criterion Strategy

The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal stake for a bet based on the probability of winning.

Formula:

f=bp−qbf = \frac{bp – q}{b}f=bbp−q​

Where:

• $f$ = Fraction of your bankroll to bet
• $b$ = Decimal odds – 1
• $p$ = Probability of winning (your estimated probability)
• $q$ = Probability of losing (1 – p)

Example:
If you estimate a team has a 60% chance of winning ($p=0.6$), and the odds are 2.00, then:

f=(2.00−1)×0.6−(1−0.6)2.00−1=0.6−0.41=0.2f = \frac{(2.00 – 1) \times 0.6 – (1 – 0.6)}{2.00 – 1} = \frac{0.6 – 0.4}{1} = 0.2f=2.00−1(2.00−1)×0.6−(1−0.6)​=10.6−0.4​=0.2

So, you should bet 20% of your bankroll.

---

2. Poisson Distribution Strategy

The Poisson distribution helps predict the number of goals teams will score by analyzing past goal data.

Formula:

P(k)=λke−λk!P(k) = \frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!}P(k)=k!λke−λ​

Where:

• $P(k)$ = Probability of scoring $k$ goals
• $\lambda$ = Average goals per match (calculated from past matches)
• $k!$ = Factorial of $k$

Example:
If a team averages 1.8 goals per match, you can use the Poisson formula to predict their likelihood of scoring 0, 1, 2, 3+ goals.

This strategy is useful for betting on:
✅ Correct Score
✅ Over/Under Goals

---

3. Expected Goals (xG) Model

The Expected Goals (xG) Model predicts the likelihood of a team scoring based on shot quality rather than just results.

How to Use xG in Betting:

• If a team has a high xG but has been unlucky in scoring, they may be undervalued in the betting market.
• Teams with low xG but high goal count might be overperforming and could regress.

Best Betting Markets for xG:
✅ Over/Under Goals
✅ Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
✅ Match Result Predictions

---

4. Monte Carlo Simulation Strategy

A Monte Carlo Simulation runs thousands of simulations based on probability data to determine the most likely match outcome.

How it Works:

1. Collect data on teams’ past performances, goals scored/conceded, and xG.
2. Simulate thousands of matches based on this data.
3. Identify the most probable outcomes.

Best Betting Markets for Monte Carlo:
✅ Correct Score
✅ 1X2 Match Winner
✅ Draw No Bet (DNB)

---

5. Asian Handicap Expected Value Strategy

Asian Handicap betting eliminates draws by giving teams virtual goal advantages.

Expected Value (EV) Formula:

$$EV=(Probability\times Winnings)-(ProbabilityofLoss\times Stake)$$

Example:

• You bet on Team A -1.5 Handicap with 1.90 odds.
• You estimate Team A has a 55% chance of winning by at least 2 goals.

$$EV=(0.55\times 0.90)-(0.45\times 1)=0.495-0.45=0.045$$

Since EV is positive, this is a good bet.

Best Betting Markets for Expected Value:
✅ Asian Handicap
✅ Over/Under Goals
✅ BTTS (Both Teams to Score)

---

Final Thoughts

These mathematical strategies help eliminate luck and rely on probabilities and statistics. If you apply them consistently with good bankroll management, they can improve your betting success over time.

Would you like a Python script to calculate these probabilities automatically? 🚀